Tuesday, 15 February 2011

The speed of change taking place in the Arab world at the moment is reminiscent of the end of communism which saw a number of Eastern Bloc leaders relaxing their totalitarian stances and replacing their leaders in 1989. Fom Solidarity being legalized in April to the fall of the Berlin Wall in November and ultimately to Ceausescu's execution in December once the people saw what was possible with organized protests their neighbours took heart and followed suit. So far this pattern is all too familiar with demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt forcing out Ben Ali and Mubarek respectively and people now taking to the streets in Yemen, Bahrain, Iran and Algeria.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/2011215101053354193.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12463600
It is still early days yet and we have the rather strange sight of people overthrowing a politician and replacing him with the military in Egypt as no strong opposition was allowed but hopefully elections later in the year give people time to organize. Oddly enough the countries currently facing demonstrators have not reacted too well as they see which way the tide is turning with Iran in particular being heavy handed and now calling for opposition leaders to be executed. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/02/15/uk-iran-opposition-mps-idUKTRE71E1N620110215
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2011/feb/15/iran-opposition-protests-tehran-video
   Ironically Iran 's leaders were praising the popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt but are not so keen on the one taking place in their own country and are quick to blame opposition leaders and make claims that such protests are exactly what their dreaded enemies in the West, with the US and Israel coming in for especial criticism for a change, whilst ignoring the obvious fact that the thousands of people on the street don't seem to agree. For a long time leaders in the Middle East have claimed, with a certain amount of justification, that Western style democracy was not suitable for them and there was no appetite for it amongst their people so pressure from Western governments to introduce it was only fomenting resentment. The people are speaking now and whilst they may not want what the West wants they have made it clear that they do not want what they have at present either and denying them their voice now is hypocrisy just because you don't like what their saying.
   Reassuringly even after strong arm tactics from the authorities against the protesters they are continuing to come out and demonstrate, no doubt buoyed by recent events elsewhere and confident in their numbers. How long and determined they are in each country remains to be seen but having seeing change in other states they are not going to give up easily and the stronger the government attack them the more it may spur them on as the fear of reprisals would be a genuine concern knowing what the authorities are capable of.

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